Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 3.032279 3.639546 4.318305 5.130456 6.072882 7.129038 8.399109
2025-04-20 2.226224 3.058639 4.098971 5.481124 7.253885 9.434572 12.300971
2025-04-27 1.659989 2.567691 3.816704 5.628248 8.149351 11.488875 16.192596
2025-05-04 1.309666 2.248197 3.651688 5.843800 9.107141 13.696462 20.525143
2025-05-11 1.016348 1.923744 3.389132 5.836628 9.704617 15.435716 24.374957
2025-05-18 0.768937 1.601246 3.048693 5.624265 9.926810 16.613034 27.494806
2025-05-25 0.576672 1.319579 2.708092 5.332872 9.952118 17.454409 30.148323
2025-06-01 0.460917 1.150095 2.525063 5.268056 10.320936 18.846987 33.761313
2025-06-08 0.370979 1.007444 2.359752 5.199051 10.657823 20.200069 37.409010
2025-06-15 0.331574 0.966335 2.386841 5.495859 11.681928 22.803524 43.348896
2025-06-22 0.278030 0.875376 2.289252 5.524021 12.197641 24.553225 47.954919
2025-06-29 0.232227 0.789953 2.185285 5.518675 12.640145 26.199953 52.497623
2025-07-06 0.191516 0.707236 2.074656 5.490756 13.054258 27.870984 57.298919
2025-07-13 0.179363 0.705350 2.162658 5.927071 14.484990 31.603370 66.198797
2025-07-20 0.157114 0.664478 2.142655 6.108145 15.394322 34.406121 73.574571
2025-07-27 0.140143 0.635161 2.147119 6.348300 16.458520 37.601785 81.930251
2025-08-03 0.117686 0.577574 2.059669 6.343680 16.971049 39.723584 88.351783
2025-08-10 0.093173 0.501007 1.897588 6.116323 16.938878 40.713219 92.600837
2025-08-17 0.071628 0.425189 1.716749 5.803081 16.657747 41.142963 95.739893
2025-08-24 0.059021 0.381985 1.629209 5.733427 16.959527 42.848192 101.608981
2025-08-31 0.048552 0.343075 1.545524 5.659170 17.238419 44.521370 107.520118
2025-09-07 0.045336 0.340195 1.590109 5.978717 18.569303 48.658679 118.926511
2025-09-14 0.038713 0.314719 1.544020 6.009032 19.138407 51.093521 126.807094